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The main refinancing and deposit facility rates set by the Governing Council of the European Central Bank.
| Published by | European Central Bank |
|---|---|
| Country | Euro Area |
| Currency affected | EUR |
| Release frequency | 8 times per year |
| Usual release time | 12:15 GMT (UTC+00:00) |
| Impact rating | High impact |
| Typical volatility | 60-120 pips on EUR/USD across the decision and press conference |
The ECB Interest Rate Decision is released 8 times per year by European Central Bank, usually at 12:15 GMT (UTC+00:00). These are the dates inside our calendar window.
Every release in the window has already been published. The next one falls outside the four-week demo calendar.
The ECB sets policy for the second most traded currency, so its stance defines the EUR/USD rate differential.
The 12:15 GMT decision is usually quiet; the 12:45 press conference is where the volatility lives.
Typical volatility around the release is 60-120 pips on EUR/USD across the decision and press conference. That is an average, not a limit: when the figure lands far from consensus, or when it contradicts the central bank's own guidance, the move can be several times larger and can extend for the rest of the session.
| Pair | Why it reacts |
|---|---|
| EUR/USD | The direct expression of ECB policy. |
| EUR/GBP | Cleanest way to isolate the euro leg. |
| EUR/CHF | Sensitive to euro-area policy and periphery spreads. |
Surprise is the released figure minus the consensus forecast, in the units of the release. Green means the figure printed above consensus, red below.
| Release date | Period | Previous | Forecast | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jun 2026 | Jun meeting | 2.15% | 2.15% | 2.15% | 0.00 |
| 1 May 2026 | May meeting | 2.15% | 2.15% | 2.15% | 0.00 |
| 17 Mar 2026 | Mar meeting | 2.15% | 2.15% | 2.15% | 0.00 |
| 31 Jan 2026 | Jan meeting | 2.15% | 2.15% | 2.15% | 0.00 |
| 17 Dec 2025 | Dec meeting | 2.15% | 2.15% | 2.15% | 0.00 |
| 2 Nov 2025 | Nov meeting | 2.15% | 2.15% | 2.15% | 0.00 |
| 18 Sep 2025 | Sep meeting | 2.15% | 2.15% | 2.15% | 0.00 |
| 4 Aug 2025 | Aug meeting | 2.15% | 2.15% | 2.15% | 0.00 |
European Central Bank publishes the ECB Interest Rate Decision for Euro Area. It is released 8 times per year, typically at 12:15 GMT (UTC+00:00).
We rate this release high impact. In our sample the typical move is 60-120 pips on EUR/USD across the decision and press conference, though a large deviation from consensus can produce considerably more.
EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF carry the cleanest reaction. The direct expression of ECB policy.
No. The currency reaction depends on how the figure changes the expected path of interest rates, not on whether the headline is high or low. The same surprise can be read very differently depending on the central bank's current stance.