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The month-on-month change in the value of new orders for machinery placed with Japanese manufacturers, excluding ships and utilities.
| Published by | Cabinet Office of Japan |
|---|---|
| Country | Japan |
| Currency affected | JPY |
| Release frequency | Monthly |
| Usual release time | 23:50 GMT (UTC+00:00) |
| Impact rating | Low impact |
| Typical volatility | 5-15 pips on USD/JPY inside the first 30 minutes |
The Japan Core Machinery Orders (MoM) is released monthly by Cabinet Office of Japan, usually at 23:50 GMT (UTC+00:00). These are the dates inside our calendar window.
The series is the standard proxy for Japanese capital expenditure six to nine months ahead.
It is one of the noisiest indicators published anywhere, so single prints are rarely traded.
Typical volatility around the release is 5-15 pips on USD/JPY inside the first 30 minutes. That is an average, not a limit: when the figure lands far from consensus, or when it contradicts the central bank's own guidance, the move can be several times larger and can extend for the rest of the session.
| Pair | Why it reacts |
|---|---|
| USD/JPY | Minor yen impulse. |
| EUR/JPY | Minor. |
| AUD/JPY | Regional-cycle proxy. |
Surprise is the released figure minus the consensus forecast, in the units of the release. Green means the figure printed above consensus, red below.
| Release date | Period | Previous | Forecast | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jul 2026 | Jun 2026 | -2.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | +0.2 |
| 13 Jun 2026 | May 2026 | -2.0% | -1.9% | -2.2% | -0.3 |
| 14 May 2026 | Apr 2026 | 0.1% | -1.4% | -2.0% | -0.6 |
| 14 Apr 2026 | Mar 2026 | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.1% | -1.2 |
| 15 Mar 2026 | Feb 2026 | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | -0.8 |
| 13 Feb 2026 | Jan 2026 | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.6% | +0.9 |
| 14 Jan 2026 | Dec 2025 | 4.3% | 0.6% | 1.8% | +1.2 |
| 15 Dec 2025 | Nov 2025 | 2.8% | 4.6% | 4.3% | -0.3 |
Cabinet Office of Japan publishes the Japan Core Machinery Orders (MoM) for Japan. It is released monthly, typically at 23:50 GMT (UTC+00:00).
We rate this release low impact. In our sample the typical move is 5-15 pips on USD/JPY inside the first 30 minutes, though a large deviation from consensus can produce considerably more.
USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY carry the cleanest reaction. Minor yen impulse.
No. The currency reaction depends on how the figure changes the expected path of interest rates, not on whether the headline is high or low. The same surprise can be read very differently depending on the central bank's current stance.