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The change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits, released alongside the wage-growth figures.
| Published by | Office for National Statistics |
|---|---|
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Currency affected | GBP |
| Release frequency | Monthly |
| Usual release time | 06:00 GMT (UTC+00:00) |
| Impact rating | Medium impact |
| Typical volatility | 25-50 pips on GBP/USD inside the first 30 minutes |
The UK Claimant Count Change is released monthly by Office for National Statistics, usually at 06:00 GMT (UTC+00:00). These are the dates inside our calendar window.
Average weekly earnings, published in the same batch, are the number the MPC actually reacts to.
Survey-based UK employment data has known response-rate problems, so the claimant count carries extra weight.
Typical volatility around the release is 25-50 pips on GBP/USD inside the first 30 minutes. That is an average, not a limit: when the figure lands far from consensus, or when it contradicts the central bank's own guidance, the move can be several times larger and can extend for the rest of the session.
| Pair | Why it reacts |
|---|---|
| GBP/USD | Labour-market repricing. |
| EUR/GBP | Sterling-only expression. |
| GBP/CHF | Thin but responsive on large misses. |
Surprise is the released figure minus the consensus forecast, in the units of the release. Green means the figure printed above consensus, red below.
| Release date | Period | Previous | Forecast | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jul 2026 | Jun 2026 | 13.9K | 16.2K | 17.6K | +1.4 |
| 12 Jun 2026 | May 2026 | 9.9K | 11.7K | 13.9K | +2.2 |
| 13 May 2026 | Apr 2026 | 27.6K | 5.9K | 9.9K | +4.0 |
| 13 Apr 2026 | Mar 2026 | 8.5K | 28.6K | 27.6K | -1.0 |
| 14 Mar 2026 | Feb 2026 | 12.0K | 10.4K | 8.5K | -1.9 |
| 12 Feb 2026 | Jan 2026 | 24.2K | 14.2K | 12.0K | -2.2 |
| 13 Jan 2026 | Dec 2025 | 21.4K | 27.8K | 24.2K | -3.6 |
| 14 Dec 2025 | Nov 2025 | 6.7K | 21.2K | 21.4K | +0.2 |
Office for National Statistics publishes the UK Claimant Count Change for United Kingdom. It is released monthly, typically at 06:00 GMT (UTC+00:00).
We rate this release medium impact. In our sample the typical move is 25-50 pips on GBP/USD inside the first 30 minutes, though a large deviation from consensus can produce considerably more.
GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/CHF carry the cleanest reaction. Labour-market repricing.
No. The currency reaction depends on how the figure changes the expected path of interest rates, not on whether the headline is high or low. The same surprise can be read very differently depending on the central bank's current stance.