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The year-on-year change in UK consumer prices, published alongside core and services inflation measures.
| Published by | Office for National Statistics |
|---|---|
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Currency affected | GBP |
| Release frequency | Monthly |
| Usual release time | 06:00 GMT (UTC+00:00) |
| Impact rating | High impact |
| Typical volatility | 50-100 pips on GBP/USD inside the first 30 minutes |
The UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) is released monthly by Office for National Statistics, usually at 06:00 GMT (UTC+00:00). These are the dates inside our calendar window.
Services inflation is the MPC's key indicator of domestic price persistence and drives the reaction more than the headline.
It prints at 06:00 GMT, before the London session properly opens, so the initial move happens in thin liquidity.
Typical volatility around the release is 50-100 pips on GBP/USD inside the first 30 minutes. That is an average, not a limit: when the figure lands far from consensus, or when it contradicts the central bank's own guidance, the move can be several times larger and can extend for the rest of the session.
| Pair | Why it reacts |
|---|---|
| GBP/USD | Direct sterling rate repricing. |
| EUR/GBP | Cleanest sterling-only expression. |
| GBP/JPY | Amplifies the move through carry. |
Surprise is the released figure minus the consensus forecast, in the units of the release. Green means the figure printed above consensus, red below.
| Release date | Period | Previous | Forecast | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jul 2026 | Jun 2026 | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 0.0 |
| 20 Jun 2026 | May 2026 | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.3% | -0.1 |
| 21 May 2026 | Apr 2026 | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.3% | -0.1 |
| 21 Apr 2026 | Mar 2026 | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.8% | +0.1 |
| 22 Mar 2026 | Feb 2026 | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | -0.1 |
| 20 Feb 2026 | Jan 2026 | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 0.0 |
| 21 Jan 2026 | Dec 2025 | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 0.0 |
| 22 Dec 2025 | Nov 2025 | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | -0.1 |
Office for National Statistics publishes the UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) for United Kingdom. It is released monthly, typically at 06:00 GMT (UTC+00:00).
We rate this release high impact. In our sample the typical move is 50-100 pips on GBP/USD inside the first 30 minutes, though a large deviation from consensus can produce considerably more.
GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY carry the cleanest reaction. Direct sterling rate repricing.
No. The currency reaction depends on how the figure changes the expected path of interest rates, not on whether the headline is high or low. The same surprise can be read very differently depending on the central bank's current stance.