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The year-on-year change in personal consumption expenditure prices excluding food and energy — the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge.
| Published by | Bureau of Economic Analysis |
|---|---|
| Country | United States |
| Currency affected | USD |
| Release frequency | Monthly |
| Usual release time | 12:30 GMT (UTC+00:00) |
| Impact rating | High impact |
| Typical volatility | 30-60 pips on EUR/USD inside the first 30 minutes |
The Core PCE Price Index (YoY) is released monthly by Bureau of Economic Analysis, usually at 12:30 GMT (UTC+00:00). These are the dates inside our calendar window.
Every release in the window has already been published. The next one falls outside the four-week demo calendar.
The FOMC targets PCE rather than CPI, so this print is the one that formally scores progress against the 2% objective.
Much of the basket is already known from CPI and PPI, so the reaction is usually smaller than CPI unless the composition surprises.
Typical volatility around the release is 30-60 pips on EUR/USD inside the first 30 minutes. That is an average, not a limit: when the figure lands far from consensus, or when it contradicts the central bank's own guidance, the move can be several times larger and can extend for the rest of the session.
| Pair | Why it reacts |
|---|---|
| EUR/USD | Standard dollar repricing channel. |
| USD/JPY | Follows the front-end yield reaction. |
| XAU/USD | Real-yield sensitive. |
Surprise is the released figure minus the consensus forecast, in the units of the release. Green means the figure printed above consensus, red below.
| Release date | Period | Previous | Forecast | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Jun 2026 | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0 |
| 1 Jun 2026 | May 2026 | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0 |
| 2 May 2026 | Apr 2026 | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0.0 |
| 2 Apr 2026 | Mar 2026 | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 0.0 |
| 3 Mar 2026 | Feb 2026 | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0.0 |
| 1 Feb 2026 | Jan 2026 | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0 |
| 2 Jan 2026 | Dec 2025 | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 0.0 |
| 3 Dec 2025 | Nov 2025 | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0.0 |
Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes the Core PCE Price Index (YoY) for United States. It is released monthly, typically at 12:30 GMT (UTC+00:00).
We rate this release high impact. In our sample the typical move is 30-60 pips on EUR/USD inside the first 30 minutes, though a large deviation from consensus can produce considerably more.
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, XAU/USD carry the cleanest reaction. Standard dollar repricing channel.
No. The currency reaction depends on how the figure changes the expected path of interest rates, not on whether the headline is high or low. The same surprise can be read very differently depending on the central bank's current stance.