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The weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held in inventory by US firms.
| Published by | Energy Information Administration |
|---|---|
| Country | United States |
| Currency affected | USD |
| Release frequency | Weekly |
| Usual release time | 14:30 GMT (UTC+00:00) |
| Impact rating | Medium impact |
| Typical volatility | 1-3% on crude, 20-40 pips on USD/CAD |
The EIA Crude Oil Inventories is released weekly by Energy Information Administration, usually at 14:30 GMT (UTC+00:00). These are the dates inside our calendar window.
Inventory builds and draws are the cleanest weekly read on the balance between US oil supply and demand.
Oil-linked currencies inherit the move, which is why FX traders watch a nominally commodity-market release.
Typical volatility around the release is 1-3% on crude, 20-40 pips on USD/CAD. That is an average, not a limit: when the figure lands far from consensus, or when it contradicts the central bank's own guidance, the move can be several times larger and can extend for the rest of the session.
| Pair | Why it reacts |
|---|---|
| USD/CAD | Canada is a major crude exporter; the pair tracks oil inversely. |
| USD/NOK | The other classic petro-currency expression. |
| CAD/JPY | A leveraged way to trade the oil impulse. |
Surprise is the released figure minus the consensus forecast, in the units of the release. Green means the figure printed above consensus, red below.
| Release date | Period | Previous | Forecast | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2026 | Jul 22 | -0.5M | -3.2M | -3.2M | 0.0 |
| 15 Jul 2026 | Jul 15 | 2.0M | -0.6M | -0.5M | +0.1 |
| 8 Jul 2026 | Jul 8 | 0.1M | 1.5M | 2.0M | +0.5 |
| 1 Jul 2026 | Jul 1 | -0.6M | -1.0M | 0.1M | +1.1 |
| 24 Jun 2026 | Jun 24 | -3.0M | -1.5M | -0.6M | +0.9 |
| 17 Jun 2026 | Jun 17 | -2.0M | -2.1M | -3.0M | -0.9 |
| 10 Jun 2026 | Jun 10 | -3.5M | -0.9M | -2.0M | -1.1 |
| 3 Jun 2026 | Jun 3 | 1.4M | -2.5M | -3.5M | -1.0 |
Energy Information Administration publishes the EIA Crude Oil Inventories for United States. It is released weekly, typically at 14:30 GMT (UTC+00:00).
We rate this release medium impact. In our sample the typical move is 1-3% on crude, 20-40 pips on USD/CAD, though a large deviation from consensus can produce considerably more.
USD/CAD, USD/NOK, CAD/JPY carry the cleanest reaction. Canada is a major crude exporter; the pair tracks oil inversely.
No. The currency reaction depends on how the figure changes the expected path of interest rates, not on whether the headline is high or low. The same surprise can be read very differently depending on the central bank's current stance.