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The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.
| Published by | US Department of Labor |
|---|---|
| Country | United States |
| Currency affected | USD |
| Release frequency | Weekly |
| Usual release time | 12:30 GMT (UTC+00:00) |
| Impact rating | Medium impact |
| Typical volatility | 10-25 pips on EUR/USD inside the first 30 minutes |
The Initial Jobless Claims is released weekly by US Department of Labor, usually at 12:30 GMT (UTC+00:00). These are the dates inside our calendar window.
Claims is the highest-frequency labour indicator available and is used to nowcast the monthly payrolls number.
Single weeks are noisy, so the market watches the four-week moving average and only reacts to genuine breaks in trend.
Typical volatility around the release is 10-25 pips on EUR/USD inside the first 30 minutes. That is an average, not a limit: when the figure lands far from consensus, or when it contradicts the central bank's own guidance, the move can be several times larger and can extend for the rest of the session.
| Pair | Why it reacts |
|---|---|
| EUR/USD | Small but reliable dollar impulse. |
| USD/JPY | Front-end yield sensitive. |
| XAU/USD | Trades the labour-market narrative. |
Surprise is the released figure minus the consensus forecast, in the units of the release. Green means the figure printed above consensus, red below.
| Release date | Period | Previous | Forecast | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2026 | Jul 23 | 234K | 225K | 222K | -3 |
| 16 Jul 2026 | Jul 16 | 237K | 229K | 234K | +5 |
| 9 Jul 2026 | Jul 9 | 229K | 234K | 237K | +3 |
| 2 Jul 2026 | Jul 2 | 232K | 227K | 229K | +2 |
| 25 Jun 2026 | Jun 25 | 222K | 232K | 232K | 0 |
| 18 Jun 2026 | Jun 18 | 219K | 221K | 222K | +1 |
| 11 Jun 2026 | Jun 11 | 213K | 220K | 219K | -1 |
| 4 Jun 2026 | Jun 4 | 218K | 209K | 213K | +4 |
US Department of Labor publishes the Initial Jobless Claims for United States. It is released weekly, typically at 12:30 GMT (UTC+00:00).
We rate this release medium impact. In our sample the typical move is 10-25 pips on EUR/USD inside the first 30 minutes, though a large deviation from consensus can produce considerably more.
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, XAU/USD carry the cleanest reaction. Small but reliable dollar impulse.
No. The currency reaction depends on how the figure changes the expected path of interest rates, not on whether the headline is high or low. The same surprise can be read very differently depending on the central bank's current stance.