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A diffusion index built from a survey of purchasing managers at US factories; readings above 50 indicate expansion.
| Published by | Institute for Supply Management |
|---|---|
| Country | United States |
| Currency affected | USD |
| Release frequency | Monthly |
| Usual release time | 14:00 GMT (UTC+00:00) |
| Impact rating | Medium impact |
| Typical volatility | 20-45 pips on EUR/USD inside the first 30 minutes |
The ISM Manufacturing PMI is released monthly by Institute for Supply Management, usually at 14:00 GMT (UTC+00:00). These are the dates inside our calendar window.
Every release in the window has already been published. The next one falls outside the four-week demo calendar.
Manufacturing is small in employment terms but highly cyclical, so the index leads turning points in the wider economy.
The prices-paid and new-orders sub-indices are watched as early inflation and demand signals.
Typical volatility around the release is 20-45 pips on EUR/USD inside the first 30 minutes. That is an average, not a limit: when the figure lands far from consensus, or when it contradicts the central bank's own guidance, the move can be several times larger and can extend for the rest of the session.
| Pair | Why it reacts |
|---|---|
| EUR/USD | Growth-differential channel. |
| USD/JPY | Follows the risk tone that the survey sets. |
| AUD/USD | Global-cycle proxy tied to industrial demand. |
Surprise is the released figure minus the consensus forecast, in the units of the release. Green means the figure printed above consensus, red below.
| Release date | Period | Previous | Forecast | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2026 | Jun 2026 | 50.6 | 49.3 | 49.2 | -0.1 |
| 4 Jun 2026 | May 2026 | 48.3 | 51.0 | 50.6 | -0.4 |
| 5 May 2026 | Apr 2026 | 50.0 | 48.6 | 48.3 | -0.3 |
| 5 Apr 2026 | Mar 2026 | 51.1 | 50.1 | 50.0 | -0.1 |
| 6 Mar 2026 | Feb 2026 | 49.4 | 51.6 | 51.1 | -0.5 |
| 4 Feb 2026 | Jan 2026 | 50.5 | 49.2 | 49.4 | +0.2 |
| 5 Jan 2026 | Dec 2025 | 51.1 | 50.7 | 50.5 | -0.2 |
| 6 Dec 2025 | Nov 2025 | 49.8 | 50.8 | 51.1 | +0.3 |
Institute for Supply Management publishes the ISM Manufacturing PMI for United States. It is released monthly, typically at 14:00 GMT (UTC+00:00).
We rate this release medium impact. In our sample the typical move is 20-45 pips on EUR/USD inside the first 30 minutes, though a large deviation from consensus can produce considerably more.
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD carry the cleanest reaction. Growth-differential channel.
No. The currency reaction depends on how the figure changes the expected path of interest rates, not on whether the headline is high or low. The same surprise can be read very differently depending on the central bank's current stance.