Loading the economic calendar
Loading the economic calendar
A preliminary survey reading of US household sentiment, published with accompanying one-year and five-year inflation expectations.
| Published by | University of Michigan |
|---|---|
| Country | United States |
| Currency affected | USD |
| Release frequency | Monthly |
| Usual release time | 14:00 GMT (UTC+00:00) |
| Impact rating | Low impact |
| Typical volatility | 10-25 pips on EUR/USD inside the first 30 minutes |
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prelim) is released monthly by University of Michigan, usually at 14:00 GMT (UTC+00:00). These are the dates inside our calendar window.
The inflation-expectations component is watched more closely than the headline because the Fed cites it directly.
It lands on a Friday when liquidity is already thinning, which can exaggerate the move.
Typical volatility around the release is 10-25 pips on EUR/USD inside the first 30 minutes. That is an average, not a limit: when the figure lands far from consensus, or when it contradicts the central bank's own guidance, the move can be several times larger and can extend for the rest of the session.
| Pair | Why it reacts |
|---|---|
| EUR/USD | Minor dollar impulse. |
| XAU/USD | Trades the inflation-expectations line. |
| USD/JPY | Follows yields. |
Surprise is the released figure minus the consensus forecast, in the units of the release. Green means the figure printed above consensus, red below.
| Release date | Period | Previous | Forecast | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul 2026 | Jun 2026 | 64.7 | 68.1 | 68.6 | +0.5 |
| 15 Jun 2026 | May 2026 | 63.8 | 63.9 | 64.7 | +0.8 |
| 16 May 2026 | Apr 2026 | 66.2 | 64.8 | 63.8 | -1.0 |
| 16 Apr 2026 | Mar 2026 | 66.0 | 66.9 | 66.2 | -0.7 |
| 17 Mar 2026 | Feb 2026 | 66.6 | 66.6 | 66.0 | -0.6 |
| 15 Feb 2026 | Jan 2026 | 67.8 | 67.4 | 66.6 | -0.8 |
| 16 Jan 2026 | Dec 2025 | 67.5 | 66.8 | 67.8 | +1.0 |
| 17 Dec 2025 | Nov 2025 | 66.5 | 67.6 | 67.5 | -0.1 |
University of Michigan publishes the Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prelim) for United States. It is released monthly, typically at 14:00 GMT (UTC+00:00).
We rate this release low impact. In our sample the typical move is 10-25 pips on EUR/USD inside the first 30 minutes, though a large deviation from consensus can produce considerably more.
EUR/USD, XAU/USD, USD/JPY carry the cleanest reaction. Minor dollar impulse.
No. The currency reaction depends on how the figure changes the expected path of interest rates, not on whether the headline is high or low. The same surprise can be read very differently depending on the central bank's current stance.