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The net change in the number of people employed outside farms, private households and the non-profit sector during the previous month.
| Published by | Bureau of Labor Statistics |
|---|---|
| Country | United States |
| Currency affected | USD |
| Release frequency | Monthly |
| Usual release time | 12:30 GMT (UTC+00:00) |
| Impact rating | High impact |
| Typical volatility | 60-120 pips on EUR/USD inside the first 30 minutes |
The Non-Farm Payrolls is released monthly by Bureau of Labor Statistics, usually at 12:30 GMT (UTC+00:00). These are the dates inside our calendar window.
Every release in the window has already been published. The next one falls outside the four-week demo calendar.
Payrolls is the single most watched read on US labour demand, and the Federal Reserve's dual mandate makes it a direct input into rate expectations.
Because the whole market trades the same number at the same second, liquidity thins into the release and the initial move is often violent and partially retraced.
Typical volatility around the release is 60-120 pips on EUR/USD inside the first 30 minutes. That is an average, not a limit: when the figure lands far from consensus, or when it contradicts the central bank's own guidance, the move can be several times larger and can extend for the rest of the session.
| Pair | Why it reacts |
|---|---|
| EUR/USD | The cleanest expression of a pure dollar repricing. |
| USD/JPY | Most rate-sensitive major; reacts to the front end of the US curve. |
| XAU/USD | Gold swings hard on the real-yield impulse that follows the print. |
Surprise is the released figure minus the consensus forecast, in the units of the release. Green means the figure printed above consensus, red below.
| Release date | Period | Previous | Forecast | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Jul 2026 | Jun 2026 | 192K | 91K | 106K | +15 |
| 8 Jun 2026 | May 2026 | 148K | 208K | 192K | -16 |
| 9 May 2026 | Apr 2026 | 105K | 168K | 148K | -20 |
| 9 Apr 2026 | Mar 2026 | 154K | 112K | 105K | -7 |
| 10 Mar 2026 | Feb 2026 | 208K | 155K | 154K | -1 |
| 8 Feb 2026 | Jan 2026 | 123K | 206K | 208K | +2 |
| 9 Jan 2026 | Dec 2025 | 201K | 114K | 123K | +9 |
| 10 Dec 2025 | Nov 2025 | 183K | 187K | 201K | +14 |
Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Non-Farm Payrolls for United States. It is released monthly, typically at 12:30 GMT (UTC+00:00).
We rate this release high impact. In our sample the typical move is 60-120 pips on EUR/USD inside the first 30 minutes, though a large deviation from consensus can produce considerably more.
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, XAU/USD carry the cleanest reaction. The cleanest expression of a pure dollar repricing.
No. The currency reaction depends on how the figure changes the expected path of interest rates, not on whether the headline is high or low. The same surprise can be read very differently depending on the central bank's current stance.