Forex News
ECB Wage Tracker Shows 2.6% Pay Growth in 2026
The ECB's wage tracker, compiled with nine national central banks, reports negotiated wage growth of 2.6% for 2026 excluding one-off payments, rising to 2.7% in the first quarter of 2027.
- The ECB wage tracker excluding one-off payments shows a value of 2.6% for 2026.
- The same series shows a value of 2.7% for the first quarter of 2027.
- Quarterly averages excluding one-off payments were 1.8% in Q1 2026, 2.1% in Q2 2026 and 2.6% across Q3 and Q4 2026.
- Employee coverage of the tracker fell from 47.0% in Q1 2026 to 28.4% by Q1 2027.
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections put compensation per employee growth at 3.2% for 2026.
ECB Wage Tracker Overview
The ECB wage tracker is published jointly by the ECB and nine national central banks.
It provides four wage indicator series covering nine participating euro area countries.
The participating countries are Belgium, Germany, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, Netherlands, Austria and Finland.
The tracker uses a double aggregation approach as its methodology.
Underlying data have been updated through the first week of July 2026.
Wage Growth Excluding One-Off Payments
Excluding one-off payments, the tracker shows a value of 2.6% for 2026.
That figure is described as around 2.6% and stable for 2026.
The 2026 reading is broadly unchanged compared with the prior release.
For the first quarter of 2027, the excluding one-off payments series shows a value of 2.7%.
Quarterly averages excluding one-off payments were 1.8% in the first quarter of 2026.
They rose to 2.1% in the second quarter of 2026.
The average across the third and fourth quarters of 2026 was 2.6%.
Series With Unsmoothed One-Off Payments
With unsmoothed one-off payments included, the tracker also shows a value of 2.6% for 2026.
For the first quarter of 2027, this series shows a value of 2.7%.
Quarterly averages under this measure were 2.9% in the first quarter of 2026.
They were 2.6% in the second quarter of 2026.
The average across the third and fourth quarters of 2026 under this measure was 2.5%.
The headline value for the first quarter of 2027 is reported at 2.7%.
A restated figure for the same quarter is also 2.7%.
Scope, Coverage and Outlook
The ECB describes the wage tracker as not a forecast.
Its forward-looking horizon currently extends to March 2027.
The ECB plans to extend the horizon to the second quarter of 2027 in its September 2026 release.
Employee coverage of the tracker was 47.0% in the first quarter of 2026.
Coverage fell to 45.7% in the second quarter of 2026.
It declined further to 42.5% in the third quarter of 2026.
Coverage was 42.0% in the fourth quarter of 2026.
By the first quarter of 2027, coverage had dropped to 28.4%.
Overall employee coverage for 2026 stood at 44.3%.
Comparison With Eurosystem Projections
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections put compensation per employee growth at 3.2% for 2026.